(TV) Mostly OT?: Hit-song predictions get a scientific spin

["Casey, Leo J" <CaseyL@VOLPE.DOT.GOV>]

Maybe the boys of Television could steal this software when 
they play in Barcelona in a couple of weeks?   Leo

"Hit-song predictions get a scientific spin" 
By Joan Anderman, Globe Staff, 5/9/2003 
So you think you've written a hit song? Guess again. Perfect hooks, 
killer beats, and powerhouse singing add up to nothing for many 
aspiring songwriters -- and for ambitious record executives, 
who have historically relied on good ears and gut instinct 
when it comes to finding talent. A new company is trying to 
take some of the guesswork out of the artwork, with help 
from science and supercomputers. Hit Song Science already is 
generating controversy, with some artists and record-label insiders 
saying it only highlights the desperation of a struggling music industry. 

Hit Song Science is a high-tech music analysis system that compares 
new songs to a massive database of chart-topping singles and predicts 
hit potential based on shared attributes. 
In other words, the more your song has in common with Usher's 
''U Don't Have To Call'' or Santana's ''Smooth,'' the better your prospects for 
stardom. All five of the major record companies -- BMG, EMI, Sony, 
Universal, and Warner Bros-- are currently using the service founded last 
year by Barcelona-based Polyphonic HMI. A modified online version, 
geared toward songwriters, was launched this week at www.hitsongscience.com. 
''Our technology is to music what X-rays are to medicine,'' says Polyphonic 
HMI CEO Mike McCready. ''We help the record industry see their market 
and their music in a way they were previously unable to do.'' 

Hit Song Science technology isolates sonic patterns in a song, ranging 
from tempo and chord progressions to melody, harmony, and pitch, 
and then compares the song to ''hit clusters'' gleaned from its database 
of 3 1/2 million songs. The system is updated weekly with new releases in 
order to effectively predict a song's potential for success in the current market. 
Ironically, HSS arrives at a moment when those in the music business face 
criticism that popular music is increasingly derivative and homogeneous. 
''This is just another reason why the music industry is going down the tubes,'' 
says singer-songwriter Ellis Paul. ''We need to think on the edges, not down 
the middle.'' But McCready says his company isn't trying to encourage 
cookie-cutter music. ''We hope we can help labels look at music that 
doesn't sound formulaic but will still return on their investment,'' he says. 
''For example, we predicted the success of Norah Jones's [Grammy winning] 
`Don't Know Why.' Nothing in our data base actually sounded like it. 
Rather it was the combinations of patterns and properties that indicated hit potential.'' 
But Jesse Harris, the New York songwriter who composed ''Don't Know Why,'' 
is skeptical. ''It sounds like a coincidence to me,'' says Harris. ''If they tell the
 label it's got hit potential and then the label puts lots of money into it, maybe 
that's why the song's a success.'' 

In addition to using HSS to choose album singles, labels are also utilizing the 
technology to help screen music submissions from unsigned artists and 
short-list those identified by HSS as worthy of a closer look. 
Locally, the small label that's home to pop-rock band Elcodrive paid $3,000 
for a 19-page analysis of songs on its debut indie album, which the band
 includes in a detailed submission package when trying to lure major labels to sign it. 
(Story, Page C1). 

But plenty of industry insiders and observers are worried that Hit Song Science 
reduces the artistic process to a stack of mathematical data, sacrificing creativity 
in the name of profitability. ''I think it's terrible,'' says Leigh Lust, senior vice president 
of A&R at Elektra Records. ''Look at the unique, inspiring artists that would never 
pop through if every label adopted this. It will make labels product-pushers even more 
than they already are.'' 

''It's a fascinating tool, and smart companies will use this as ancillary information,'' 
counters Jeff Fenster, senior vice president of A&R for Island/Def Jam Records. 
''Especially in the present state of the industry.'' ''But don't live by it,'' he warns. 
''There's more involved in how music connects than what can be read in lines on a graph.'' 

A Polyphonic album evaluation includes detailed analyses of each song as well as 
a numerical grade between 1-10. A rating over 7 means a song has a strong hit 
potential. The online service charges $49 per song and delivers a less 
in-depth report to songwriters within three days. 

Hit Song Science is hardly foolproof. It doesn't factor in such key elements 
as a song's lyrics and an artist's personal charisma, or intangibles like marketing 
and advertising campaigns. ''There are three requirements for a hit,'' says McCready. 
''It has to sound like a hit to human ears, it has to have the right promotion, and it must 
have optimal mathematical patterns. That's where we come in.'' 
Joan Anderman can be reached at anderman@globe.com 
This story ran on page A1 of the Boston Globe on 5/9/2003. 
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